No "Man on the Moon"

While many will no doubt rue the fact that India's proposed manned-moon mission has been shelved, I for one agree with the decision , taken on firm practical grounds. Such a mission would have been no doubt immensely symbolic and made every Indian proud, but it would have made little economic or scientific sense. And for a country with limited resources , getting your priorities right is essential. And the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) seems to be doing just that.

The plans in place for India's premiere space organization are grand.ISRO has its sights set on an orbiter to Mars in 2014. The ground work for this will be laid when the Chandrayan I satellite is set be launched by March next year. It will be established about ten km away from the surface of the moon, collecting some new scientific and meteorological data. ISRO's ambitious plans include the setting up of a space platform in the next 25-20 years. But India is not yet thinking of joining any international venture to Mars or planning manned missions, due to the obvious financial constraints. India is eyeing the global commercial satellite launch market dominated mainly by the United States, Russia and Europe. In 2009, it will develop a rocket, the GSLV-Mark III, capable of carrying satellites as heavy as 4 tons. With the development of GSLV Mark-III, India will be able to launch heavy satellites into the geosynchronous transfer orbit. Currently since ISRO launch vehicles are capable of only sub-four-tonne launches , we have to depend on some other international launch vehicle for the launch.

The goals are ambitious but such ambitious goals have been delayed / shelved due to a lack of funds far too many times in the past.A government budgetary outlay of Rs.3, 858 crore in 2007-08 is not enough to drive ISRO towards self-sufficiency. Antrix Corporation ,the commercial arm of ISRO had revenue sales of over 400 crores last year, mainly from selling high resolution imagery, the transponders business and satellite launching, a mere trickle as compared to what it could potentially earn. The activities of the company are predominantly export oriented and with more than 75% of the earnings being in foreign exchange, the company is earning valuable foreign exchange for the country. But, despite having a fleet of nine communication satellites, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) is not a commercial success. ISRO does not figure in the list of top 25 operators ranked on the basis of revenues for providing fixed satellite services, defined as leasing transponders for television broadcasting, data transmission, telephony and other services. The potential especially in the domestic market has yet to be fully tapped. Many of ISRO's products, especially the higher resolution imagery, are used exclusively by the Defense Ministry and are not available to the civilian market. But given that comparable European and American imagery are widely available, even to Indians, the restrictions on the sale of some ISRO products for civilian use are self-defeating. With Google Earth broadcasting images of Indian defense installations throughout the world, security can harsly be a pretense behind which the government hides. ISRO must strive for an agreement with the Defence Ministry to allow a greater public access to these services for unlocking their tremendous commercial potential. So far, Indian imagery products and services worth $60 million (about Rs 270 crore) have been exported worldwide and today,it is among the top 3 in the world in this regard.

ISRO is one of the few public sector organizations to embrace public-private partnership. Today, Indian industry provides all the raw materials, hardware and high-tech electronic items required by ISRO. ISRO is not only involving industry as partners but also providing them in-house facilities, sharing knowledge, resources, joint investments and unique test facilities. ISRO has also transferred almost 268 technologies developed by it to the private sector for commercialization. A truly symbiotic relationship is beginning to develop between the Indian private industries and ISRO, rather than any one-way temporary relationship. But it is still at a nascent stage and needs to further strengthen. ISRO faces many hurdles in the satellite launch market too.

The market for satellites weighing below 2,500 kg is limited, at best, and those in the 3,500-4500 kg range will form the backbone of the commercial communications satellite business — a market that Atlas V, Delta IV and Ariane 5 currently dominate.These launchers can lift payloads of over 6,000 kg today. In contrast, only by 2008 is the GSLV expected to increase its payload mass to 4,000 kg. ISRO may still end up using a foreign service provider due to the payload constraints of the GSLV, thereby forfeiting a potential windfall. Currently ISRO is benefiting because of its lower launch prices of the PSLV and GSLV as compared to NASA or ESA vehicles. But,with Ariane being able to offer co-launches (whereby two-satellites are launched by a single rocket), prices have come down even further. This, coupled with competition from the Chinese rockets, will make it difficult to bank completely on low prices to secure new launch orders.

But the biggest obstacle to the commercial prospects of the GSLV is the American sanctions on export of satellites that are built in the US or include components that are made in the US.Though some of the sanctions have been relaxed, there are still many restrictions in place which prevent the full optimization of Indo-US space relations. Also,fat paypackets in the IT sector has been drawing away talented science graduates and engineers.So, talent crunch plus crammed schedules in the years ahead have forced the ISRO to set up the IIST (Indian Institute of Space and Technology), so that the nation’s space programmes do not suffer. A lot of money will be required if its standards are to be maintained anywhere close to those of the IITs or the IIMs.

The future of ISRO depends on how quickly can the organization attain self-sufficiency. It has to decide if it wants to depend on the Government grants and crib about financial constraints or earn precious foreign exchange for the country from a glorious chance in lucrative space economics. Of course , it is so far showing remarkable foresight and going steadily down the right path. But for it to jog, it cannot depend on the crutches of the government. Especially when bright new running shoes are dangling tantalizingly in front of it.